Pavia vs Cesena analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
32.9%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.8%
3-0
2.2%
4-1
0.7%
5-2
0.1%
+3
3%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
2.7%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
<0%
+2
9.1%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
7.3%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.8%
28.1%
Draw
0-0
9.7%
1-1
13.2%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
28%
39.1%
Win probability
1.23
Expected goals
0-1
11.9%
1-2
8.1%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
22.1%
0-2
7.3%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11.3%
0-3
3%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
4.2%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Pavia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb. 2004 |
PAV
0 - 3
SPE
34%
27%
39%
|
47 | 58 | 11 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 2004 |
SAS
3 - 0
PAV
46%
26%
28%
|
48 | 48 | 0 | -1 |
| 08 Feb. 2004 |
PAV
1 - 0
ACP
51%
24%
26%
|
48 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 2004 |
ARZ
2 - 0
PAV
65%
21%
15%
|
48 | 58 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2004 |
PAV
0 - 1
VAR
53%
25%
23%
|
49 | 49 | 0 | -1 |
Matches
Cesena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb. 2004 |
CES
1 - 1
ARZ
55%
24%
21%
|
61 | 58 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 2004 |
ACP
0 - 0
CES
22%
27%
51%
|
61 | 47 | 14 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 2004 |
PIS
0 - 2
CES
39%
29%
32%
|
61 | 57 | 4 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 2004 |
CES
2 - 1
CTT
58%
23%
19%
|
60 | 56 | 4 | +1 |
| 18 Jan. 2004 |
SPE
1 - 1
CES
40%
29%
31%
|
60 | 57 | 3 | 0 |