Cesena vs Novara analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52.7%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.1%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.1%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.2%
23.1%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
0-1
6.9%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.7%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cesena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct. 2010 |
CHI
2 - 1
CES
60%
25%
16%
|
72 | 80 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 2010 |
CES
1 - 1
PAR
32%
26%
42%
|
72 | 80 | 8 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2010 |
UDI
1 - 0
CES
72%
19%
9%
|
72 | 83 | 11 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 2010 |
CES
1 - 4
NAP
30%
28%
42%
|
73 | 83 | 10 | -1 |
| 22 Sep. 2010 |
CAT
2 - 0
CES
60%
25%
16%
|
74 | 80 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 2010 |
NOV
3 - 0
VIC
57%
24%
19%
|
69 | 66 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2010 |
SAS
0 - 1
NOV
49%
26%
25%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2010 |
NOV
2 - 0
ATL
34%
28%
38%
|
67 | 78 | 11 | +2 |
| 10 Oct. 2010 |
POR
1 - 5
NOV
33%
29%
37%
|
66 | 62 | 4 | +1 |
| 06 Oct. 2010 |
VAR
3 - 1
NOV
32%
28%
39%
|
67 | 58 | 9 | -1 |