Cesena vs Varese analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.1%
Win probability
1.85
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.7%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.9%
2-0
12.5%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.6%
1-0
13.5%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.7%
22%
Draw
0-0
7.3%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
22%
14.9%
Win probability
0.77
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
4%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
10.6%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cesena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov. 2002 |
SPA
0 - 0
CES
43%
27%
30%
|
61 | 56 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 2002 |
CES
3 - 2
ACP
71%
18%
11%
|
61 | 50 | 11 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2002 |
REG
2 - 2
CES
36%
29%
35%
|
60 | 54 | 6 | +1 |
| 20 Oct. 2002 |
CES
2 - 0
CAR
63%
22%
15%
|
60 | 52 | 8 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2002 |
PRO
2 - 0
CES
52%
25%
23%
|
61 | 61 | 0 | -1 |
Matches
Varese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov. 2002 |
VAR
1 - 2
SPE
33%
27%
40%
|
55 | 62 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 2002 |
PIS
2 - 1
VAR
45%
28%
27%
|
56 | 55 | 1 | -1 |
| 27 Oct. 2002 |
ASL
1 - 0
VAR
52%
26%
22%
|
56 | 59 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2002 |
VAR
3 - 4
PAD
36%
27%
37%
|
57 | 61 | 4 | -1 |
| 13 Oct. 2002 |
ARZ
0 - 1
VAR
46%
27%
27%
|
56 | 50 | 6 | +1 |