Aberystwyth Town vs Caernarfon Town FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
32.3%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1%
3-0
2.2%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.5%
2-0
5%
3-1
3.3%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
9.2%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
7.6%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.3%
25%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
25%
42.7%
Win probability
1.53
Expected goals
0-1
9.1%
1-2
9%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
21.5%
0-2
6.9%
1-3
4.6%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
12.8%
0-3
3.5%
1-4
1.7%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
5.7%
0-4
1.3%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
-2%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
15
8º
12º
11º
31
1º
8º
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
62 | 82 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
47 | 59 |
2º
|
89.5% | |
|
3º
|
37 | 49 |
3º
|
33% | |
|
8º
|
28 | 48 |
4º
|
34% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 47 |
5º
|
25.5% | |
|
4º
|
34 | 46 |
6º
|
22% | |
|
|
6º
|
31 | 43 |
7º
|
21% | |
|
7º
|
28 | 42 |
8º
|
23% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 34 |
9º
|
37% | |
|
12º
|
13 | 33 |
10º
|
38.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
15 | 27 |
11º
|
48% | |
|
11º
|
14 | 25 |
12º
|
68.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
0% | 31.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
100% | 68.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aberystwyth Town
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Sep. 2023 |
TNS
6 - 0
ABE
81%
13%
7%
|
54 | 67 | 13 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 2023 |
ABE
0 - 1
PON
50%
24%
27%
|
54 | 55 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 2023 |
NEW
0 - 0
ABE
62%
21%
17%
|
54 | 61 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2023 |
CON
4 - 0
ABE
54%
25%
21%
|
55 | 63 | 8 | -1 |
| 12 Aug. 2023 |
ABE
0 - 1
CAR
28%
27%
45%
|
55 | 67 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Sep. 2023 |
CAE
0 - 4
CON
42%
27%
32%
|
59 | 64 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 2023 |
CAE
1 - 1
BAL
35%
25%
40%
|
59 | 65 | 6 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 2023 |
HAV
1 - 1
CAE
38%
26%
36%
|
59 | 58 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2023 |
CAE
2 - 1
NEW
36%
25%
39%
|
58 | 62 | 4 | +1 |
| 13 Aug. 2023 |
COL
0 - 4
CAE
36%
24%
40%
|
56 | 52 | 4 | +2 |