Aberystwyth Town vs Caernarfon Town FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
33.3%
Win probability
1.44
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.3%
3-0
2.2%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.9%
2-0
4.6%
3-1
3.7%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
9.7%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
7.7%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
17.9%
23.6%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
6.5%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.6%
43.1%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
0-1
7.4%
1-2
8.9%
2-3
3.6%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.8%
0-2
6.2%
1-3
5%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
12.9%
0-3
3.5%
1-4
2.1%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
6.1%
0-4
1.4%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.3%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-16%
-3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
22
4º
11º
10º
25
3º
8º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
60 | 60 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
44 | 44 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 41 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 41 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
40 | 40 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
33 | 33 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
27 | 27 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
|
8º
|
25 | 25 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
24 | 24 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
|
10º
|
22 | 22 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
20 | 20 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
0 | 1 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
100% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aberystwyth Town
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan. 2023 |
ABE
0 - 3
PEN
25%
25%
50%
|
51 | 63 | 12 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 2023 |
FLI
1 - 1
ABE
52%
24%
24%
|
51 | 56 | 5 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 2022 |
NEW
6 - 1
ABE
71%
18%
11%
|
51 | 65 | 14 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2022 |
ABE
1 - 2
NEW
19%
22%
59%
|
52 | 65 | 13 | -1 |
| 23 Dec. 2022 |
HAV
3 - 1
ABE
49%
25%
27%
|
53 | 55 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan. 2023 |
AIR
0 - 3
CAE
23%
22%
56%
|
57 | 42 | 15 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 2023 |
PEN
5 - 1
CAE
52%
24%
24%
|
58 | 62 | 4 | -1 |
| 03 Jan. 2023 |
CAE
0 - 1
TNS
29%
24%
47%
|
58 | 67 | 9 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 2022 |
BAL
3 - 0
CAE
64%
20%
16%
|
59 | 67 | 8 | -1 |
| 26 Dec. 2022 |
CAE
1 - 5
BAL
34%
25%
41%
|
60 | 67 | 7 | -1 |