Aberfan vs Trefelin analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
7.2%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.2%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.4%
2-0
0.7%
3-1
0.6%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
1.6%
1-0
1.7%
2-1
2.2%
3-2
1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
5.1%
11.9%
Draw
0-0
2.1%
1-1
5.3%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
11.9%
80.9%
Win probability
3.04
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
8%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18.5%
0-2
9.5%
1-3
8.1%
2-4
2.6%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0%
-2
20.7%
0-3
9.6%
1-4
6.2%
2-5
1.6%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
17.6%
0-4
7.3%
1-5
3.8%
2-6
0.8%
3-7
0.1%
-4
12%
0-5
4.4%
1-6
1.9%
2-7
0.3%
3-8
0%
-5
6.7%
0-6
2.3%
1-7
0.8%
2-8
0.1%
3-9
0%
-6
3.2%
0-7
1%
1-8
0.3%
2-9
0%
-7
1.3%
0-8
0.4%
1-9
0.1%
2-10
0%
-8
0.5%
0-9
0.1%
1-10
0%
-9
0.2%
0-10
0%
-10
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aberfan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep. 2022 |
ABF
2 - 0
PTA
55%
21%
24%
|
9 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Trefelin
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Oct. 2022 |
TRE
3 - 1
CWM
53%
20%
27%
|
35 | 33 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2022 |
TRE
5 - 0
PON
65%
18%
17%
|
35 | 30 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2022 |
TRE
5 - 0
LLA
72%
16%
12%
|
34 | 17 | 17 | +1 |
| 29 Aug. 2022 |
TRE
0 - 3
YAF
72%
16%
13%
|
36 | 26 | 10 | -2 |
| 26 Aug. 2022 |
CAR
2 - 1
TRE
70%
17%
12%
|
36 | 45 | 9 | 0 |