Copa do Brasil 1/16
Global 1-2
ABC vs Novo Hamburgo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.7%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
3%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.1%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.8%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.1%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.6%
18.7%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
5%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.5%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
ABC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul. 2014 |
ABC
2 - 1
JEC
35%
27%
38%
|
62 | 70 | 8 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2014 |
LUV
3 - 1
ABC
43%
27%
30%
|
63 | 60 | 3 | -1 |
| 04 Jun. 2014 |
ABC
1 - 1
NAU
54%
24%
22%
|
63 | 59 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 May. 2014 |
AVA
0 - 1
ABC
53%
25%
23%
|
62 | 63 | 1 | +1 |
| 28 May. 2014 |
ABC
0 - 1
OES
61%
22%
17%
|
63 | 56 | 7 | -1 |
Matches
Novo Hamburgo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 May. 2014 |
JMA
0 - 2
NOV
36%
27%
38%
|
57 | 52 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 May. 2014 |
NOV
1 - 0
JMA
52%
25%
23%
|
57 | 53 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 2014 |
JEC
2 - 2
NOV
72%
18%
10%
|
56 | 69 | 13 | +1 |
| 10 Apr. 2014 |
NOV
1 - 0
JEC
22%
25%
53%
|
55 | 69 | 14 | +1 |
| 22 Mar. 2014 |
BRA
2 - 0
NOV
41%
28%
32%
|
57 | 56 | 1 | -2 |