Cup Paulista Final
Global 5-3
Portuguesa vs Marília analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.4%
Win probability
1.78
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
3%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4%
3-0
6.8%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.7%
2-0
11.4%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.4%
1-0
12.9%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.3%
23%
Draw
0-0
7.3%
1-1
10.9%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
23%
17.6%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
12.1%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Portuguesa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Dec. 2020 |
MAR
1 - 2
POR
39%
27%
35%
|
57 | 52 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2020 |
POR
3 - 0
SAO
37%
27%
36%
|
55 | 59 | 4 | +2 |
| 12 Dec. 2020 |
SAO
1 - 1
POR
55%
25%
20%
|
55 | 59 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 2020 |
POR
1 - 2
AGU
51%
25%
24%
|
56 | 52 | 4 | -1 |
| 06 Dec. 2020 |
AGU
0 - 1
POR
42%
27%
31%
|
55 | 53 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Marília
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Dec. 2020 |
MAR
1 - 2
POR
39%
27%
35%
|
52 | 57 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2020 |
XVD
1 - 0
MAR
60%
22%
18%
|
53 | 60 | 7 | -1 |
| 13 Dec. 2020 |
MAR
3 - 1
XVD
26%
25%
49%
|
51 | 61 | 10 | +2 |
| 09 Dec. 2020 |
MAR
2 - 0
FER
30%
26%
44%
|
50 | 59 | 9 | +1 |
| 06 Dec. 2020 |
FER
0 - 1
MAR
63%
23%
15%
|
49 | 60 | 11 | +1 |