Série D Brazil Ronda final 1/16
Global 3-1
4 de Julho vs Peñarol AC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.3%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.6%
3-0
5.1%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.3%
2-0
9.8%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.7%
1-0
12.6%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
25.5%
Draw
0-0
8.1%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.5%
23.2%
Win probability
0.95
Expected goals
0-1
7.8%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
15.1%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.9%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
4 de Julho
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep. 2021 |
PEN
1 - 0
4DE
28%
26%
46%
|
44 | 38 | 6 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 2021 |
4DE
1 - 0
JCA
72%
19%
10%
|
45 | 33 | 12 | -1 |
| 28 Aug. 2021 |
IMP
0 - 0
4DE
27%
25%
49%
|
45 | 35 | 10 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2021 |
TOC
0 - 2
4DE
17%
21%
62%
|
44 | 28 | 16 | +1 |
| 14 Aug. 2021 |
4DE
1 - 2
PAL
62%
22%
16%
|
45 | 34 | 11 | -1 |
Matches
Peñarol AC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep. 2021 |
PEN
1 - 0
4DE
28%
26%
46%
|
38 | 44 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2021 |
PEN
2 - 1
GAS
71%
18%
11%
|
38 | 23 | 15 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 2021 |
CAS
1 - 1
PEN
64%
22%
15%
|
38 | 46 | 8 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2021 |
PEN
2 - 1
FAS
57%
23%
20%
|
37 | 32 | 5 | +1 |
| 15 Aug. 2021 |
GAL
1 - 3
PEN
46%
24%
30%
|
36 | 34 | 2 | +1 |