4 de Julho vs Caiçara analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
72.3%
Win probability
2.35
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.6%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.5%
4-0
5.5%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.9%
3-0
9.4%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.6%
2-0
12%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.3%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.1%
17%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
8%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
17%
10.7%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
3.1%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
7.7%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.4%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
4 de Julho
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb. 2014 |
4DE
2 - 2
PIA
50%
25%
25%
|
38 | 37 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2014 |
RIV
4 - 1
4DE
50%
24%
26%
|
39 | 42 | 3 | -1 |
| 01 Feb. 2014 |
4DE
1 - 2
COR
65%
20%
15%
|
40 | 29 | 11 | -1 |
| 26 Jan. 2014 |
BAR
3 - 0
4DE
29%
25%
45%
|
42 | 35 | 7 | -2 |
| 25 Apr. 2013 |
BAR
1 - 4
4DE
34%
26%
41%
|
41 | 36 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Caiçara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb. 2014 |
CAI
2 - 1
COR
24%
23%
53%
|
16 | 34 | 18 | 0 |
| 09 Feb. 2014 |
BAR
1 - 0
CAI
71%
18%
11%
|
16 | 37 | 21 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2014 |
CAI
0 - 7
RIV
20%
22%
58%
|
18 | 42 | 24 | -2 |
| 28 Jan. 2014 |
PIA
3 - 0
CAI
76%
15%
9%
|
18 | 36 | 18 | 0 |
| 16 Jun. 2012 |
CAI
1 - 3
PIC
30%
24%
46%
|
19 | 32 | 13 | -1 |