Union Berlin vs FC St Pauli analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.6%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.9%
2-0
7.3%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.2%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.1%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.9%
29.1%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
0-1
6.6%
1-2
7.1%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
16.8%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
8.2%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
-2%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
5
5º
13º
12º
0
16º
18º
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
17º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
9 | 85 |
1º
|
77.5% | |
|
5º
|
6 | 74 |
2º
|
33.5% | |
|
3º
|
7 | 73 |
3º
|
29.5% | |
|
2º
|
7 | 72 |
4º
|
31% | |
|
9º
|
4 | 58 |
5º
|
35% | |
|
6º
|
6 | 52 |
6º
|
17.5% | |
|
7º
|
6 | 51 |
7º
|
18% | |
|
12º
|
3 | 43 |
8º
|
12.5% | |
|
13º
|
3 | 43 |
9º
|
12% | |
|
4º
|
6 | 40 |
10º
|
13.5% | |
|
11º
|
3 | 40 |
11º
|
13% | |
|
|
8º
|
5 | 39 |
12º
|
13% | |
|
14º
|
2 | 38 |
13º
|
15% | |
|
15º
|
2 | 36 |
14º
|
9.5% | |
|
10º
|
4 | 31 |
15º
|
15.5% | |
|
|
17º
|
0 | 28 |
16º
|
10% | |
|
16º
|
0 | 27 |
17º
|
16.5% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 25 |
18º
|
27.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League
|
1.5% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
4.5% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
82% | 46% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
5.5% | 10% |
|
Relegation
|
6.5% | 44% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Union Berlin
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
M05
1 - 1
FCU
43%
26%
31%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
GRE
0 - 1
FCU
9%
20%
71%
|
88 | 55 | 33 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2024 |
FCU
1 - 1
RSO
37%
27%
36%
|
88 | 91 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
FCU
0 - 4
LYO
40%
25%
35%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
FCU
4 - 4
GLA
58%
23%
20%
|
88 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
FC St Pauli
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
STP
0 - 2
HEI
37%
25%
38%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2024 |
HAL
2 - 3
STP
9%
15%
77%
|
85 | 60 | 25 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2024 |
STP
3 - 0
ATL
15%
22%
63%
|
85 | 95 | 10 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
NOR
1 - 3
STP
28%
23%
49%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2024 |
STP
1 - 0
LYO
29%
24%
47%
|
85 | 88 | 3 | 0 |