Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
12%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.6%
2-0
1.6%
3-1
0.9%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.7%
1-0
4.1%
2-1
3.4%
3-2
1%
4-3
0.1%
5-4
<0%
+1
8.6%
18.6%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.6%
69.4%
Win probability
2.18
Expected goals
0-1
11.4%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.1%
0-2
12.4%
1-3
7%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
21%
0-3
9%
1-4
3.8%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
13.4%
0-4
4.9%
1-5
1.6%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
6.8%
0-5
2.1%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.8%
0-6
0.8%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-8%
-11%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
24
4º
14º
13º
33
2º
7º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
54 | 86 |
1º
|
97% | |
|
2º
|
46 | 75 |
2º
|
94% | |
|
3º
|
39 | 60 |
3º
|
35% | |
|
|
5º
|
33 | 60 |
4º
|
26.5% | |
|
4º
|
35 | 58 |
5º
|
22.5% | |
|
11º
|
29 | 55 |
6º
|
24% | |
|
6º
|
33 | 51 |
7º
|
16.5% | |
|
8º
|
31 | 49 |
8º
|
16% | |
|
9º
|
30 | 48 |
9º
|
18.5% | |
|
7º
|
32 | 47 |
10º
|
21.5% | |
|
10º
|
30 | 45 |
11º
|
26.5% | |
|
12º
|
27 | 39 |
12º
|
36.5% | |
|
|
13º
|
24 | 36 |
13º
|
30.5% | |
|
14º
|
21 | 33 |
14º
|
30% | |
|
15º
|
18 | 33 |
15º
|
27% | |
|
16º
|
14 | 26 |
16º
|
34% | |
|
17º
|
12 | 24 |
17º
|
34.5% | |
|
18º
|
10 | 22 |
18º
|
51% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 69% |
|
Europa League
|
0% | 15.5% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0.5% | 8.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
94.5% | 7% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
5% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Union Berlin
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan. 2025 |
STP
3 - 0
FCU
34%
28%
39%
|
89 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Jan. 2025 |
FCU
2 - 1
M05
31%
25%
44%
|
89 | 91 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 2025 |
FCU
0 - 2
AUG
48%
25%
28%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
HEI
2 - 0
FCU
40%
25%
35%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 Jan. 2025 |
FCU
1 - 2
HOL
57%
22%
21%
|
89 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
RB Leipzig
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan. 2025 |
STR
1 - 0
RBL
4%
11%
85%
|
98 | 81 | 17 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2025 |
RBL
2 - 2
LEV
33%
24%
43%
|
98 | 99 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 Jan. 2025 |
RBL
2 - 1
SCP
76%
15%
9%
|
97 | 89 | 8 | +1 |
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
RTV
3 - 3
RBL
10%
17%
73%
|
98 | 84 | 14 | -1 |
| 15 Jan. 2025 |
STU
2 - 1
RBL
28%
23%
50%
|
98 | 94 | 4 | 0 |