Union Berlin vs Mainz 05 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
31.3%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
2%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.2%
2-0
4.9%
3-1
3.1%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
8.8%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
7.4%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
18%
25.2%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.2%
43.5%
Win probability
1.52
Expected goals
0-1
9.5%
1-2
9%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
21.9%
0-2
7.2%
1-3
4.6%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
13.1%
0-3
3.7%
1-4
1.7%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
5.8%
0-4
1.4%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-8%
+8%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
24
4º
14º
13º
32
5º
15º
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
54 | 86 |
1º
|
97% | |
|
2º
|
46 | 75 |
2º
|
94% | |
|
3º
|
39 | 60 |
3º
|
35% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 60 |
4º
|
26.5% | |
|
4º
|
35 | 58 |
5º
|
22.5% | |
|
11º
|
29 | 55 |
6º
|
24% | |
|
6º
|
33 | 51 |
7º
|
16.5% | |
|
8º
|
31 | 49 |
8º
|
16% | |
|
9º
|
30 | 48 |
9º
|
18.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
32 | 47 |
10º
|
21.5% | |
|
10º
|
30 | 45 |
11º
|
26.5% | |
|
12º
|
27 | 39 |
12º
|
36.5% | |
|
|
13º
|
24 | 36 |
13º
|
30.5% | |
|
14º
|
21 | 33 |
14º
|
30% | |
|
15º
|
18 | 33 |
15º
|
27% | |
|
16º
|
14 | 26 |
16º
|
34% | |
|
17º
|
12 | 24 |
17º
|
34.5% | |
|
18º
|
10 | 22 |
18º
|
51% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 1.5% |
|
Europa League
|
0% | 4% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0.5% | 5.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
94.5% | 89% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
5% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Union Berlin
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan. 2025 |
FCU
0 - 2
AUG
48%
25%
28%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
HEI
2 - 0
FCU
40%
25%
35%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 Jan. 2025 |
FCU
1 - 2
HOL
57%
22%
21%
|
89 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2024 |
BRE
4 - 1
FCU
43%
26%
31%
|
90 | 89 | 1 | -1 |
| 14 Dec. 2024 |
FCU
1 - 1
RTV
56%
23%
21%
|
89 | 83 | 6 | +1 |
Matches
Mainz 05
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan. 2025 |
LEV
1 - 0
M05
75%
16%
9%
|
91 | 99 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
M05
2 - 0
RTV
57%
23%
20%
|
91 | 84 | 7 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2024 |
EIN
1 - 3
M05
51%
24%
25%
|
90 | 93 | 3 | +1 |
| 14 Dec. 2024 |
M05
2 - 1
BYM
5%
10%
85%
|
90 | 100 | 10 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 2024 |
WOL
4 - 3
M05
42%
25%
33%
|
90 | 90 | 0 | 0 |