Champions League Last 16
Global 5-0
Köln vs Lokomotiv Sofia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
84.2%
Win probability
2.77
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.4%
7-0
0.9%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.1%
6-0
2.4%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
<0%
+6
2.9%
5-0
5.1%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.1%
+5
6.4%
4-0
9.2%
5-1
2.6%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
12.2%
3-0
13.4%
4-1
4.7%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
18.8%
2-0
14.5%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.6%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
7.3%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.7%
11.3%
Draw
0-0
3.8%
1-1
5.3%
2-2
1.9%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
11.3%
4.5%
Win probability
0.51
Expected goals
0-1
1.9%
1-2
1.3%
2-3
0.3%
3-4
0%
-1
3.6%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.2%
2-4
0%
-2
0.8%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Köln
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct. 1978 |
ARB
1 - 0
KOL
26%
25%
49%
|
87 | 71 | 16 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 1978 |
KOL
0 - 2
EIN
67%
18%
15%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 1978 |
LSO
0 - 1
KOL
30%
26%
44%
|
87 | 77 | 10 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 1978 |
S04
1 - 1
KOL
43%
25%
33%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 1978 |
KOL
3 - 3
MSV
72%
16%
12%
|
87 | 81 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Lokomotiv Sofia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct. 1978 |
LSO
1 - 1
LSO
52%
25%
24%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 1978 |
CVA
1 - 2
LSO
49%
28%
24%
|
77 | 70 | 7 | +1 |
| 18 Oct. 1978 |
LSO
0 - 1
KOL
30%
26%
44%
|
77 | 87 | 10 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 1978 |
LSO
1 - 0
SPA
71%
18%
11%
|
77 | 63 | 14 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 1978 |
SSO
2 - 0
LSO
61%
22%
17%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | -1 |