Europa League Quarter-finals
Global 8-3
Köln vs FC Amsterdam analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
86.2%
Win probability
3.58
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.3%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.4%
8-0
0.8%
9-1
0.3%
10-2
<0%
+8
1.1%
7-0
1.8%
8-1
0.7%
9-2
0.1%
10-3
<0%
+7
2.6%
6-0
3.5%
7-1
1.5%
8-2
0.3%
9-3
<0%
+6
5.3%
5-0
5.8%
6-1
3%
7-2
0.6%
8-3
0.1%
+5
9.5%
4-0
8.1%
5-1
5%
6-2
1.3%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
14.6%
3-0
9.1%
4-1
6.9%
5-2
2.1%
6-3
0.4%
7-4
<0%
+3
18.5%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
3%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19%
1-0
4.3%
2-1
6.5%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
15%
8.7%
Draw
0-0
1.2%
1-1
3.6%
2-2
2.8%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
8.7%
5%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
1%
1-2
1.5%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
3.6%
0-2
0.4%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Köln
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Mar. 1975 |
OFC
1 - 4
KOL
40%
24%
37%
|
86 | 81 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 1975 |
KOL
1 - 0
BYM
48%
22%
30%
|
85 | 87 | 2 | +1 |
| 15 Feb. 1975 |
F95
3 - 0
KOL
31%
25%
45%
|
86 | 80 | 6 | -1 |
| 08 Feb. 1975 |
KOL
4 - 1
STP
82%
10%
7%
|
86 | 68 | 18 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 1975 |
KOL
4 - 1
RTV
75%
15%
10%
|
86 | 78 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
FC Amsterdam
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Mar. 1975 |
AMS
1 - 1
ADO
61%
22%
17%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 1975 |
AJA
2 - 4
AMS
86%
10%
5%
|
78 | 88 | 10 | +1 |
| 16 Feb. 1975 |
AMS
6 - 0
GRA
66%
21%
13%
|
78 | 66 | 12 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 1975 |
AZA
2 - 0
AMS
41%
28%
32%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | -1 |
| 26 Jan. 1975 |
AMS
2 - 1
HFC
71%
19%
10%
|
78 | 63 | 15 | +1 |