1º Dezembro vs União da Serra analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
24.2%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
0.7%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.2%
2-0
3.3%
3-1
2.5%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
6.6%
1-0
5.5%
2-1
6.2%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
14.6%
22.5%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.5%
53.3%
Win probability
1.88
Expected goals
0-1
8.7%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
3.6%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.8%
0-2
8.2%
1-3
6.1%
2-4
1.7%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
16.2%
0-3
5.1%
1-4
2.9%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
8.7%
0-4
2.4%
1-5
1.1%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
3.7%
0-5
0.9%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0.1%
-5
1.3%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+2%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
47
1º
5º
3º
27
2º
10º
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
48 | 52 |
1º
|
53% | |
|
1º
|
48 | 51 |
2º
|
33% | |
|
|
3º
|
47 | 51 |
3º
|
22.5% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 44 |
4º
|
75.5% | |
|
5º
|
40 | 43 |
5º
|
60.5% | |
|
7º
|
36 | 40 |
6º
|
50.5% | |
|
6º
|
38 | 39 |
7º
|
36.5% | |
|
8º
|
35 | 39 |
8º
|
57% | |
|
9º
|
33 | 34 |
9º
|
80.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
27 | 31 |
10º
|
60.5% | |
|
11º
|
25 | 28 |
11º
|
78% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 19 |
12º
|
65.5% | |
|
14º
|
6 | 17 |
13º
|
50% | |
|
13º
|
11 | 12 |
14º
|
84.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
77.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
22.5% | 80% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 20% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
1º Dezembro
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 2022 |
SER
1 - 2
1DE
60%
25%
16%
|
30 | 42 | 12 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2022 |
1DE
2 - 1
ALC
60%
22%
18%
|
30 | 21 | 9 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2022 |
LOU
1 - 1
1DE
65%
20%
15%
|
29 | 39 | 10 | +1 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
1DE
4 - 0
PER
27%
27%
46%
|
26 | 33 | 7 | +3 |
| 11 Sep. 2022 |
ORI
2 - 1
1DE
49%
22%
28%
|
26 | 32 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
União da Serra
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 2022 |
UDA
1 - 0
MOR
64%
18%
18%
|
36 | 32 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2022 |
SAB
0 - 1
UDA
28%
21%
51%
|
36 | 27 | 9 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2022 |
UDA
0 - 4
OLI
17%
18%
65%
|
37 | 50 | 13 | -1 |
| 25 Sep. 2022 |
SER
1 - 0
UDA
41%
27%
32%
|
38 | 41 | 3 | -1 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
UDA
5 - 4
ALC
84%
11%
5%
|
38 | 22 | 16 | 0 |